[Macro Matters] April 4th
1. Economic Data
Trump’s Tariffs Are Hitting Exports, Early Korean Data Show - WSJ
South Korea’s Economy Contracted Before Trump Tariffs Hit - WSJ
South Korea’s economy contracted, missing market expectations.
Tokyo Consumer Inflation Accelerates in April as Companies Raise Prices - WSJ
US labor market holds steady for now; tariffs keep businesses on edge | Reuters
American Consumers Serve Up Bleak Outlook on Economy
The University of Michigan said Friday its final index of consumer sentiment for April was 52.2,
down from 57 in March, a drop of 8% from the previous month.
2. Central Bank
With inflation progress slow, Fed's Daly says rate cuts may need to wait | Reuters
Daly: There is no reason to lower the policy rate urgently. We aim for one crucial goal: Price stability.
Uncertainty has not stalled out activity, she commented.
Goolsbee showed concerns over Trump’s attempt to expel Jerome Powell from the Fed
as the stability and credibility of monetary policy might be questioned as a result.
China’s Benchmark Lending Rates Left on Hold Again - WSJ
BOJ chief Ueda to visit Washington for G20, IMF meetings | Reuters
Trump Warns US Economy Could Slow If Powell Doesn’t Cut Rates
Trump: “There is virtually No Inflation,” pointing to lower energy and food prices.
“But there can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers
interest rates, NOW,”
ECB’s Muller Warns Tariffs, German Spending May Boost Inflation
ECB’s Rehn Sees Tariffs Pushing Inflation Down in Short Term - Bloomberg
Rehn: The tariffs will cause inflation to rise in the US, but the EU might face deflation in
the short term.
Hawkish BOE Rate-Setter Greene Says US Tariffs Disinflationary - Bloomberg
Trump says he has no plans to fire Fed's Powell; market jumps | Reuters
Trump: "I have no intention of firing him”
Trump expressed optimism that a trade deal with China could "substantially" cut tariffs.
Fed's Kashkari says 'too soon to judge' interest rate path | Reuters
His stance was same as usual: No hurry to judge interest rate path
Why Trump Decided Not to Try to Fire Jerome Powell - WSJ
According to WSJ, White House lawyers actually reviewed whether it’s available to oust Powell.
Those discussions appear to have stalled after Trump denied any intention to fire Powell.
Fed's Hammack sees more runway for Fed balance sheet cuts | Reuters
Hammack says now is not the time to change monetary policy.
Russian central bank keeps key rate on hold at 21% | Reuters
The Russian central bank maintained its key interest rate at 21% due to the inflation risk.
3. Politics / World
Russian President Vladimir Putin announces an Easter ceasefire in Ukraine
Putin ordered that all military actions be stopped during Easter. Russia is about to take
over the Kursk region in total.
US Supreme Court temporarily halts deportations of Venezuelan migrants under wartime law | Reuters
China Warns Against Trade Deal With U.S. at Beijing’s Expense - WSJ
EU Delayed Punishing Apple, Meta Just Before Trade Talks Started - WSJ
Kyiv and Moscow accuse each other of countless violations of one-day Easter ceasefire | Reuters
Kyiv and Moscow blamed each other for violations of the Easter ceasefire respectively.
Putin did not show any intent to extend further the temporal ceasefire declared on Easter.
Despite numerous violations of one-day ceasefire, military actions along the frontline actually
decreased, according to the military officials and bloggers.
Israel's military finds 'professional failures' in killings of Gaza medics | Reuters
Exclusive: EU explores tweaking methane rules for US gas to help trade talks, sources say | Reuters
(Reuters)EU to ease regulations on imports of US gas to help trade talks.
If Trump Delisted Chinese Stocks, Here’s How It Would Work - WSJ
Vance set to visit India for bilateral talks on economic, trade and geopolitical ties | AP News
Ishiba Says Japan Won’t Just Keep Conceding in US Tariff Talks - Bloomberg
Ishiba vows to defend Japan’s interests against tariff threats from the US. Furthermore,
He denied a plan to ‘sacrifice’ national agricultural industries to comply with Trump’s demand.
China sanctions US congress members, officials and NGO heads | Reuters
Pope Francis, first Latin American pontiff, dies at 88 | AP News
Kremlin says U.S. position ruling out NATO membership for Ukraine gives satisfaction | Reuters
The Kremlin expressed satisfaction over the U.S idea to exclude NATO membership for Ukraine.
Nevertheless, it did not mention the timeline or ongoing negotiations about truce.
Ishiba Pens Letter to Xi as Japan Aims to Avoid Trade Crossfire
Japan to deliver a letter to Xi amid rising trade tensions.
U.S. Slaps Steep Tariffs on Southeast Asian Solar Imports - WSJ
Tariffs of up to 3,521% on imports of solar cells from Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam.
The US government suspects China shipped solar cells to Southeast Asian countries
in order to avoid tariffs.
China urges Japan to help fight US tariffs together, Kyodo reports | Reuters
China calls on UK to uphold international order in face of 'rampant unilateral bullying' | Reuters
Bessent Expects Tariff Standoff With China to De-Escalate - Bloomberg
Bessent said that the trade war between China and the US can’t be sustained. Although the actual
negotiations between both sides were not held, Bessent expressed optimism that
the trade tensions would be cooled down within months.
Ukraine’s Zelensky Pushes Back on U.S. Peace Plan - WSJ
Ukraine will not recognize Russia's occupation of Crime, Zelensky said.
IMF Warns of New Global Debt Surge as Economic Growth Weakens - Bloomberg
induced by trade wars might cause more countries to have larger amounts of debt, IMF warned.
Additionally, geopolitical conflicts around the world also demand countries to borrow more even
if trade conflicts ease.
White House would consider lower China tariffs pending talks, source says | Reuters
Tariffs on China could come down from their current level of 145% to between 50% and 65%,
but only if China is willing to discuss, Reuters reported.
India will pursue perpetrators of Kashmir attack to "ends of earth", Modi says | Reuters
After the attack on civilians in Kashmir killed 26 people, the diplomatic crisis between India and
Pakistan escalated. India suspended the water treaty and canceled special visas issued to Pakistanis.
Pakistan denounced those actions as an ‘act of war’ and retaliated by halting trade and suspending
airlinks.
Russian attack on Kyiv kills at least eight, Ukrainian officials say | Reuters
After the Russian attack by missiles and drones on Kyiv killed at least eight,
Trump posted: "Vladimir, STOP!".
Trump and Zelenskiy clash again and US warns it could abandon Ukraine talks | Reuters
South Korea expressed concern over Chinese structure in disputed area of sea | Reuters
China pushes for tariff cancellation to end US trade war | Reuters
Chinese commerce ministry: US should cancel out unilateral tariffs against China
to start conversation. There are no ongoing negotiations on tariffs between the US and China.
Trump plans to exempt carmakers from some tariffs, FT reports | Reuters
China waives tariffs on some U.S. goods, but denies Trump's claim that talks are underway | Reuters
China exempts some U.S imports from the 125% tariffs, however Beijing said that there were
no ongoing negotiations between the US and China.
China's Xi calls for self sufficiency in AI development amid U.S. rivalry | Reuters
China Reiterates Hitting 2025 Growth Target Amid Trade Tension - Bloomberg
China’s finance minister pledged to achieve the annual growth target
by proactive monetary policies.
4. Business / Market
China pits humanoid robots against humans in half-marathon | Reuters
21 Humanoid robots participated in the half-marathon held in Beijing.
China Plastic Plants Face Closure Risk as Tariffs Hit US Ethane - Bloomberg
Chinese plastics factories that rely on US-imported ethane face potential shutdowns due to tariffs
in the ongoing trade war.
Volvo to Cut Up to 800 US Jobs Amid Tariff Uncertainty: Reuters - Bloomberg
TSMC Warns of Limits of Ability to Keep Its AI Chips From China - Bloomberg
TSMC cited the difficulties in complying with US regulations set to keep AI chips from China.
According to the annual report from TSMC, some semiconductor products might have flowed into
China due to limitations on tracking shipments.
(Exclusive: Reuters) Huawei already started shipments of its 910C GPUs to replace NVIDIA chips
prohibited in China, Reuters reports.
South Korea's LG Energy Solution pulls out from Indonesia EV battery investment | Reuters
LG Energy Solution to withdraw its $8.45 billion project to build battery production facilities
in Indonesia due to market conditions.
Crypto Knocks on the Door of a Banking World That Shut It Out - WSJ
(WSJ)Some crypto firms plan to apply for bank licenses, according to people familiar with matters.
SC/ Deutsche Bank in study to expand crypto operations to the US, WSJ reported.
Instagram tries using AI to determine if teens are pretending to be adults | AP News
Amid growing concerns over mental issues of adolescents induced by social platforms,
Instagram now tries to detect underage users pretending to be adults by data analysis on
their contents, interactions etc.
CATL Teases Five-Minute EV Charge With Longer Range Than BYD - Bloomberg
CATL unveiled a brand-new battery that takes only 5 minutes for 520 km range.
Also, CATL claimed that its sodium-ion battery can withstand under extreme circumstances.
Due to the abundance and stability of sodium compared to lithium, CATL expects its sodium-based
battery to capture up to 50% of the market shares.
JD.com, Meituan Shares Plunge as Delivery Competition Heats Up
Lockheed Martin's quarterly profit rises on resilient defense demand | Reuters
RFK Jr. Unveils Plan to Phase Out Artificial Food Dyes - WSJ
The exclusive news reported by WSJ turned out to be true: The Trump administration starts
to remove petroleum-based dyes from the food supply by the end of this year.
Apple, Meta Hit by Modest EU Tech Fines After Trump Threats - Bloomberg
Philip Morris Lifts Outlook as Zyn Popularity Holds Strong
Philip Morris stock price reached record high due to the strong demand for its nicotine pouch, Zyn.
Intel to lay off more than 20% of workforce, Bloomberg News reports | Reuters
According to Bloomberg, Intel is ready to cut more than 20% of its workforce.
Chinese e-commerce platforms to end refund-without-returns amid weak economy, sources say | Reuters
Chinese authorities urged e-commerce platforms not to demand sellers to refund
without any returns, Reuters reported.
Nvidia Supplier SK Hynix’s Profit Soars 158% on AI Demand Boost - Bloomberg
SK Hynix’s quarterly report showed second highest revenue and operating profit.
SK Hynix maintained its HBM shipment guidance despite the uncertainty around the economy.
Chinese Firms Rush to Announce Buybacks as Tariff War Deepens - Bloomberg
Share repurchases pledged by 139 companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen
amounted to 44.1 billion yuan ($6 billion) as of Thursday.
Nintendo Says Demand for Switch 2 Console in Japan Overwhelming - Bloomberg
Nintendo President apologized that the company couldn't fulfill overwhelming
demands for Switch 2 in Japan.
Adobe adds AI models from OpenAI, Google to its Firefly app | Reuters
Adobe to add AI models on its Firefly app to enable image generation and video clips.
PepsiCo lowers full-year earnings forecast on tariff costs and lower consumer spending | AP News
Chinese Copper Inventories Post Record Weekly Drop
Copper inventories saw a significant drop that indicates demand in industries is still robust.
China's Baidu says its Kunlun chip cluster can train DeepSeek-like models | Reuters
Baidu says its self-developed P800 chips can train DeepSeek-like models. Also, Baidu claimed that
its latest model showed the best performance in several benchmark tests.
5. Indices & Commodities
DXY and US Treasuries showed resilience after Trump said he has no intention to fire Powell.
The stock market and Bitcoin performed well, supported by Trump's comment that he has no intention of dismissing Powell and optimism over easing U.S.-China trade tensions.
Exclusive: OPEC+ to consider another accelerated oil output increase for June | Reuters
7. Opinion
- Despite the statements from Trump, I don't expect trade tensions around the world would be eased in short terms. Trump couldn't retreat from his stance over world trade and tariffs to maintain the hegemony.
- Military conflicts around the world seem to soar. Frankly speaking, I do not rule out the possibility of war between India and Pakistan. I think momentum among defence companies strengthens amid rising tensions.
- I currently invest in cryptocurrencies, as I expect emerging stablecoins supported by the White House will perform as some sort of 'M2' especially for crypto markets. One example: Paypal recently announced the plan to offer annual interest on stablecoin deposits.
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