[Macro matters]April 3rd Week

 







1. Economic Data

China Credit Expansion Beats Forecast on Bond Sale Deluge - Bloomberg


-China’s March aggregate financing: 5.89 trillion Yuan > forecast: 4.96 tril

-Net Sovereign & Local bond reached 1.5 tril, supported by the gov.

-Still ‘trade war’ threatens China’s economic growth & Investment + Properties suppressed.


Yellen Says Treasuries Show US Confidence Loss, Not Dysfunction - Bloomberg


Yellen: Recent Treasury Selloff: Loss of trust in US / Not malfunction of market


China’s Exports Surge as Orders Front-Loaded Before Tariffs - WSJ


US import prices unexpectedly fall in March on cheaper energy goods | Reuters


China Q1 GDP growth beats expectations, but US tariff shock dims outlook | Reuters


=> Q1 GDP 5.4% > Forecast 5.1%, Home price still dragged down + Tariff concerns still remain.

It’s up to Chinese monetary & fiscal policy to boost the economy.


U.S. Crude Oil Stockpiles Rise for Third Straight Week - WSJ


Japan's core inflation accelerates, complicating BOJ's rate path | Reuters

Japan’s CPI(Without fresh foods price): YoY 3.2%

Inflation without fuels and foods is also elevated over 2%.


2. Central Bank

Powell Warns of ‘Challenging Scenario’ for Fed as Trade War Rages - WSJ


Powell pointed out a strong likelihood of facing high prices and unemployment rate.

Powell also emphasized the importance of price stability for strong labor market conditions.

He showed concerns over long-lasting inflation induced by tariffs and rising trade tensions.

He reiterated his cautious approach among the U.S. economy as the market appeared to be functioning well.


BOJ's Ueda says central bank may need to respond if US tariffs hurt economy, Sankei reports | Reuters

BOJ will keep raising rates if inflation on track, Governor Ueda says | Reuters


Ueda reiterated his stance on monetary policy: careful rate hikes if the economy stays on track.


Williams Says Fed Doesn’t Need to Adjust Rates ‘Any Time Soon’ - Bloomberg


ECB to Cut Rates Again as Tariffs Imperil Growth: Decision Guide - Bloomberg

Lagarde's statement after ECB policy meeting | Reuters


Trump Has for Months Privately Discussed Firing Fed Chair Powell - WSJ


(WSJ)Trump had private discussions on firing Jerome Powell, according to WSJ.

Scott Bessent persuaded Trump not to fire the Fed Chair as the independence of the Fed should be guaranteed.


China Accelerates Budget Spending to Counter Tariff Woes - Bloomberg

China’s two main fiscal books, rose to 9.26 trillion yuan ($1.3 trillion) in the first three months, an increase of 5.6% from the same period a year earlier

3. Politics / World


Tariffs on imported semiconductor chips coming soon, Trump says | Reuters


Trump: "We are taking a look at Semiconductors and the WHOLE ELECTRONICS SUPPLY CHAIN in the upcoming National Security Tariff Investigations”


No breakthrough in Gaza talks, Egyptian and Palestinian sources say | Reuters


Talks in Gaza dismissed. Hamas: More hostages can be freed if Israel agrees to start negotiating the ‘second phase’ of the peace truce.


China, Vietnam sign agreements on supply chains, railway cooperation | Reuters


China, Vietnam to assess viability of new railways, document shows | Reuters


The agreement concerns a railway connecting southern China's Guangxi region to Vietnam's capital Hanoi, and another new line that would link the port cities of Shenzhen and Haiphong.


EU to boost financial support for Palestinian Authority | Reuters


EU: 1.6 billion euros to PA( Palestinian partisionists group opposing Hamas). Usage: Financial support & reform of the PA, Recovery of the Gaza and West Bank etc.


EU to Lay Out Road Map for Cutting Reliance on Russian Energy - Bloomberg


EU’s Roadmap for reducing reliance on Russian Energy will be released early next month.


China will trade with more friends rather than 'throwing punches', foreign ministry says | Reuters


Trump says Iran must give up dream of nuclear weapon or face harsh response | Reuters


Despite the previous ‘positive and constructive’ talks between Iran and the US, Trump threatened Iran to throw out nuclear weapons. Also, Trump added that he doesn't rule out a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.


US steps up probes into pharmaceutical, chip imports, setting stage for tariffs | Reuters


Russia says it is not easy to agree Ukraine peace deal with US | Reuters

: Russia refused to yield up lands in Ukraine


EU Expects US Tariffs to Stay as Talks Make Little Progress


Ukraine, US make 'substantial progress' on minerals deal, Kyiv says | Reuters


Exclusive: Moscow plans to use seized US-owned company to feed Russian army, document shows | Reuters


Detained American factories to be used to supply food to the Russian army.


Hamas says it is ready to release all remaining hostages for an end to Gaza war | Reuters


Trump signals tit-for-tat China tariffs may be near end; TikTok deal on ice | Reuters


Trump to stop hiking tariff rates against China?


US ready to abandon efforts to broker Russia-Ukraine peace deal, Rubio says | Reuters


U.S. President Donald Trump will walk away from trying to broker a Russia-Ukraine peace deal within days unless there are clear signs that a deal can be done, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday.


Trump Advisers Took Advantage of Navarro’s Absence to Push for Tariff Pause - WSJ


(WSJ)Bessent & Lutnik urged Trump to halt the ‘reciprocal tariffs’ when Navarro was absent due to his schedule, according to WSJ. All of them claimed that they work as a team, therefore they dismissed the news as gossip to undermine the tariff policy.


Trump turns a COVID information website into a promotion page for the lab leak theory | AP News



4. Business / Market


Chinese battery maker CATL's Q1 profit grows at fastest pace in nearly 2 years | Reuters


CATL goes wild: Raising money by selling equities +  Attempt to buy controlling stakes of Nio


Nvidia says working with partners to make AI supercomputers in US | Reuters


NVIDIA plans to build AI infrastructures worth as much as $500 billion in America over the next 4 years.


What Samsung and Vietnam stand to lose in Trump's tariff war | Reuters


60% of Samsung phones are made in Vietnam => Vulnerable to ‘reciprocal tariffs’


Meta says it will resume AI training with public content from European users | AP News


Pfizer ends development of potential pill obesity treatment | AP News


Pfizer ends development of weight loss pill as it might have induced liver injury.


Japan Super-Long Yield Premium at Widest Since 2002 Amid Tariffs - Bloomberg

Treasury Term Premium Jumps to Decade High on Policy Uncertainty - Bloomberg


: Term premium spikes on sovereign bonds reflect global uncertainty and fiscal concerns.


OpenAI launches new GPT-4.1 models with improved coding, long context comprehension | Reuters


GPT-4.1 showed a 21% improvement over GPT-4o and 27% over GPT-4.5 on coding.


AMD set to produce its CPU chip at TSMC plant in Arizona | Reuters

AMD to produce CPU chips at TSMC plant in Arizona for the first time ever.


Luxury Stocks Fall After LVMH Sales Miss Expectations - WSJ


Chinese Steel Production Surges Despite Beijing’s Pledge to Cut - Bloomberg


Though China vowed to reduce overproduction on crude steel, the actual data  reflects that the exports still remained high.


Nvidia Sees $5.5 Billion Hit From New Trump China Curbs on Chips - Bloomberg

NVIDIA H20 faces restrictions on exporting to China. NVIDIA wrote down $5.5 billion in inventory due to the issue.


TSMC Projects Confidence Even as Trump Hits Global Tech - Bloomberg


TSMC kept its bullish outlook for growth this year. Despite the trade war, demand for high-tech chips is still resilient, the CEO said.


China bans 'smart' and 'autonomous' driving terms from vehicle ads | Reuters


After the fatal accident of Xiaomi’s car, China regulators banned using ‘smart’ / ‘autonomous’ driving terms for advertisements. Furthermore, new regulations were adopted to ensure safety of vehicles with driver assistance systems.


US judge finds Google holds illegal online ad tech monopolies | Reuters


Nvidia CEO stresses importance of China market in Beijing visit, Chinese state media reports | Reuters

"We hope to continue to cooperate with China," Huang said in a meeting. The CEO also met with DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng, and Nvidia will optimize its chip products to comply with US export controls.

Intel will need license to export AI chips to Chinese clients, FT reports | Reuters


Hermes to Raise Prices in the U.S. to Mitigate Tariff Hit - WSJ


Hail to the King of Luxuries..


Exclusive: Tesla to delay US launch of affordable EV, a lower-cost Model Y, sources say | Reuters


(Reuter)The reason for the delay wasn’t clear.


Johnson & Johnson Pivots Its AI Strategy - WSJ


Lilly weight-loss pill works as well as Ozempic, shares surge | Reuters


Orforglipron: The manufacturing is simpler. Effective oral drugs for diabetes and obesity. Target GLP-1 without hormone-mimicking peptides.

No liver-related safety signal was observed in its trial.

5. Indices & Commodities








6. Summary & Opinion


Since my stance and thoughts remain largely unchanged from what I wrote last week, I decided to skip this week’s Summary & Opinion.

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