[Macro Matters] April 2nd Week
1. Economic Data
US weekly jobless claims rise marginally | Reuters
US consumer prices fell for first time in nearly five years ahead of tariffs | Reuters
US monthly producer prices decline in March | Reuters
China's deflationary pressures persist as trade gloom worsens | Reuters
Sad but True. Peace sells, but no one would buy it if it costs a lot...
US consumer sentiment, inflation expectations deteriorate sharply in April | Reuters
- Generally, we don't consider 'US consumer sentiment data' as a crucial indicator. However, a 'deterioration' in consumers' confidence might become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
2. Central Bank
BOJ's Ueda sticks to rate-hike stance but signals focus on risks | Reuters
- BOJ's Ueda reaffirms his consistent stance as before: aiming positive inflation & gradual rate hikes
Fed’s Schmid Says He’s ‘Squarely Focused’ on Inflation Risks - Bloomberg
Australia central bank says too early to decide on rate path amid tariff uncertainty | Reuters
China State Media Hints at Rate Cuts to Counter Trump’s Tariffs - Bloomberg
Kashkari: Fed should intervene only reluctantly, still need to finish job on inflation - CNBC
- Fed officials share a consistent view from each other: won't move without clear view
3. Politics / World
China sovereign fund steps in to support stocks plunging on trade war | Reuters
Trump optimistic after call about tariffs with South Korea | Reuters
Exclusive: Musk's DOGE using AI to snoop on U.S. federal workers, sources say | Reuters
Hackers Spied on US Bank Regulators’ Emails for Over a Year - Bloomberg
Ukraine Says It Captured Two Chinese Citizens Fighting for Russia - WSJ
EU Chief and Chinese Premier Discuss Potential Oversupply of Goods - WSJ
Ukraine's military chief says new Russian offensive has begun | Reuters
Ukraine Counts More Than 150 Chinese Citizens Fighting for Russia - WSJ
- China officials denied sending mercs to support Russia.
China slaps restrictions on 18 US firms over Trump tariffs | Reuters
- The restrictions mainly target US firms providing goods & services to the US government.
Japan's Ishiba and NATO chief vow to deepen security ties as regional threats rise | AP News
Trump Pauses ‘Reciprocal’ Tariffs, but Hits China Harder - WSJ
- Trump announced that the White House will postpone reciprocal tariffs for 90 days except for China.
- Duties on Chinese imports: 125%->145%
China hits back at Trump tariff hike, U.S. stands its ground | Reuters
China raises duties on US goods to 125%, calls Trump tariff hikes a 'joke' | Reuters
- China to fight to the end. They will never surrender before the tariffs imposed by Trump are withdrawn.
China's Xi to visit Southeast Asia as trade conflict with US widens | Reuters
China, EU must oppose tariff 'bullying', Xi tells Spanish PM | Reuters
EU leaders plan Beijing trip in July for summit with China's Xi, SCMP reports | Reuters
- China to visit other countries amid rising trade tensions.
Some electronics, smartphones excluded from reciprocal tariffs | AP News
- Trump, are you a coward? MAGA is up to you! C'mon...
4. Business / Market
Musk says he hopes for 'zero tariffs' between US and Europe | Reuters
Musk made direct appeals to Trump to reverse new tariffs, Washington Post reports | Reuters
BlackRock's Fink says stocks could extend fall by 20% amid US recession worries | Reuters
Novo preparing for early launch of weight-loss drug Wegovy in India | Reuters
BYD launches Denza premium brand in Europe to support expansion | ReutersChinese Buyers Snapped Up Copper as Prices Plunged on Trump Tariffs - Bloomberg
- Quite Interesting.
Some US consumers stockpile goods ahead of Trump's new tariffs | Reuters
Exclusive: TSMC could face $1 billion or more fine from US probe, sources say | Reuters
Alibaba Chases International AI Users With New Qwen Upgrades - Bloomberg
Sharp US bond selloff revives flashbacks of COVID-era 'dash-for-cash' | Reuters
- For me, this news should be considered as a 'red flag' on trust in US hegemony.
Chinese Car Exports to Russia Hit by Taxes, Consumer Uncertainty - Bloomberg
- Chinese car exports decreased by 50%(YoY) due to high import taxes and interest rates.
1. Indices & Commodities
2. Summary & Opinion
- In my opinion, the DXY and U.S. Treasuries fell due to a loss of investor confidence on US. Thanks to Donald Trump, the brand power of the U.S. has deteriorated.
- The current situation presents something of an opportunity for China.
- I maintain a positive view on the CSI 300 and HSI. China is likely to ease monetary policy and intervene in markets to soothe investor anxiety amid the ongoing trade war. Chinese tech firms have also made impressive progress in sales and AI technology.
- Copper futures remain high due to strong demand from Chinese buyers. This trend supports the optimistic outlook for China's economy.
- I would say crude oil prices reached the rock bottom.
- Despite market expectations, I don't think the Fed will aggressively cut rates. Powell is not the kind of person who shifts his stance by pressure from the White House. Honestly, if rate cuts come earlier than expected, I would sell all my holdings. Such a move could signal severe economic red flags or a loss of the Fed’s independence.
- I regularly invest in defense companies, as I expect China may have military operations against Taiwan within five years to stimulate national spending. Even if the actual war doesn't occur, rising tensions around the world will support demand for arms.
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